Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 10.498928 12.328581 14.335538 16.694030 19.383071 22.346627 25.852870
2025-01-19 7.831008 10.222208 13.085064 16.739174 21.250545 26.607264 33.415388
2025-01-26 6.518378 9.284183 12.839744 17.686215 24.051819 32.052017 42.779398
2025-02-02 5.529184 8.497715 12.555280 18.402303 26.487782 37.132842 52.036739
2025-02-09 4.827879 7.938354 12.425315 19.209692 29.011999 42.431369 61.905783
2025-02-16 4.067340 7.138540 11.803067 19.183044 30.289827 46.050658 69.681691
2025-02-23 3.340247 6.252344 10.903702 18.591766 30.620510 48.276394 75.566918
2025-03-02 2.731221 5.446183 10.000423 17.850690 30.594194 49.902055 80.603085
2025-03-09 2.368545 4.999586 9.610081 17.856614 31.679917 53.204823 88.270598
2025-03-16 2.076023 4.628385 9.290953 17.926109 32.840486 56.659378 96.335035
2025-03-23 1.813783 4.268286 8.938618 17.885154 33.787854 59.804761 104.063806
2025-03-30 1.524102 3.799772 8.320803 17.293117 33.724405 61.281468 109.180990
2025-04-06 1.336631 3.519819 8.036541 17.299809 34.736144 64.649245 117.670445
2025-04-13 1.170394 3.256217 7.749219 17.267194 35.669961 67.942727 126.234699
2025-04-20 1.112298 3.234270 7.954492 18.212829 38.468185 74.602838 140.829719
2025-04-27 1.040198 3.164732 8.047922 18.938113 40.899036 80.750696 154.856142
2025-05-04 0.981746 3.118810 8.185523 19.762692 43.572890 87.470615 170.201013
2025-05-11 0.870656 2.911957 7.932244 19.734339 44.569245 91.203511 180.458239
2025-05-18 0.739121 2.619733 7.438119 19.127944 44.352921 92.677053 186.729212
2025-05-25 0.618491 2.329706 6.904429 18.368158 43.747286 93.361718 191.568856
2025-06-01 0.551888 2.187547 6.717243 18.374195 44.726251 97.095958 202.178685
2025-06-08 0.495876 2.066036 6.565659 18.445427 45.843006 101.147273 213.558519
2025-06-15 0.441684 1.937374 6.376148 18.403438 46.705041 104.735128 224.214852